Recent Posts
Recent Comments
Most Commented On
Archives
Blog
Link This | Email this | Blog This | Comments (30)
TiVo's Catch-22July 27, 2007 TiVo's survival depends on cable. Cable has limited incentives to see it succeed. Does TiVo have a way out?This week, the company that has amassed such powerful brand equity that it has become a verb ("Did you TiVo The Sopranos finale?") announced that it is working hard to convince the cable industry that it's a friend, not a foe. The purported olive branches: TiVo's new $299 high-definition DVR, designed "exclusively for cable," and a tech-support program designed to take the heat off operators for CableCard snafus instead of pointing fingers. Well, that's fine. For the subset of subscribers that want a TiVo, I suppose anything that shaves off a truck roll or builds customer goodwill is a good thing. But I wonder how much this will move the needle for TiVo. I certainly don't see cable companies suddenly starting to flog TiVos as awesome alternatives to their own set-tops. Operators potentially lose revenue if a customer chooses a TiVo CableCard box. TiVo also gets its Trojan horse in the door as a rival TV-related service provider, with (for example) the over-the-top Amazon.com movie-download service that Amazon has touted as providing a "better experience" than cable VOD. Gee, thanks, guys. Passive support for TiVo boxes is one thing. Promotional marketing is something else altogether. There's potentially a way out of this conundrum: licensing the TiVo magic to operators themselves so they can continue to own the subscriber. Comcast and Cox are doing this as we speak. But it remains to be seen how passionately Comcast and Cox will promote this. Comcast hasn't exactly stepped on the gas here. The MSO may merely be embracing TiVo as a tactical, defensive measure. Note that under these agreements, Comcast and Cox will give a cut of the monthly lease fee to TiVo. That means either that (A) they'll earn incrementally lower margin on TiVo boxes deployed versus their own DVRs or (B) they'll price TiVo boxes at a premium. I'd bet on option B. How many folks will judge the TiVo "experience" worth an extra 5 or 10 bucks a month? So there will not be terrific demand-generation through cablers, though this could change someday. What about TiVo's own consumer marketing? Surely the $299 HD DVR can heat up enough techno-lust to let the company finally turn the corner? TiVo has long been a darling of consumer-tech reviewers -- check out, for example, these happy hosannas from BusinessWeek, New York Times and Wall Street Journal. These guys are constantly befuddled that TiVo hasn't been more successful. Yes, TiVos make cute little popping noises when you click the remote. And they definitely provide cool features, like suggesting shows you might be interested in. But the cognoscenti enamored with TiVo's whizziness ignore a certain reality. It's easier to get a DVR from your cable company. And most people prefer to rent, not own, a set-top. Indeed, most DVRs in use today are already supplied by cable companies, according to a Carmel Group study. Furthermore, this trend (Wall Streeters call it a "secular trend") is likely to accelerate... with TiVo's share diving to 2% or less by 2010, the research company predicts. So perhaps TiVo hangs on as the cool kids' choice of DVR, rather like the cult of Macintosh users. Not bad footsteps to follow in -- if TiVo can manage to make it a profitable business. In May TiVo posted its first-ever profitable quarter for Q1 2007 after years of red ink. At the same time, the company said it would post a Q2 net loss of $5 million to $8 million because of its "My TiVo Gets Me" ad campaign. One step forward... Let's consider one other option: Could TiVo sell itself, perhaps to Cisco/Scientific Atlanta or Motorola? Not likely. True, the company is affordable. TiVo's market cap was around $550 million as of Thursday. The problem is that TiVo carries baggage -- i.e., its existing business model. Cisco/SA and Motorola wouldn't want to continue to service and support the 4.3 million TiVo subscribers out there, and it would be a rather pricey acquisition just to get the technology. I can't imagine buying TiVo would tickle Comcast's fancy either. The trends just don't play in TiVo's favor. Major cable operators (and Gemstar-TV Guide, which has a less-threatening licensing-only model, unlike TiVo) are rolling next-generation on-screen guides with search and personalization features that promise to rival the one edge TiVo enjoys today. Verizon has its own guide, too. And someday you may not even need a DVR, if cable providers end up just putting all video programming on VOD. Powerful brand or no, TiVo may end up being an innovator that couldn't escape its own dilemma. Posted by Todd Spangler on July 27, 2007 | Comments (30)
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Dave in Austin commented: I recently went from Satellite(with Tivo) to my local cable company for the express purpose of using the new Tivo HD.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Jodido commented: The above comment proves Todd is right. Tivo's for the fanatics (no judgment intended). Regular TV watchers like me are just fine with the cable company box. I have no interest in paying more for a monthly Tivo subscription alone than I do for my cable box--and then I have to buy the Tivo besides. And then there's the problem of the internet connection...
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Grizz700 commented: Unless you really sat down and used a Tivo, comments like Jodido are just un-educated, and I don't mean that as a slight. I have Tivo, 2 actually, and I've messed quite a bit with my parents Motorolla/Moxie DVR.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Tom Cooper commented: Tivo for fanatics? I disagree.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 ckd commented: Note that DirecTV had a long-standing deal with TiVo until they dumped it in favor of their own DVR platform; there are still many DTV customers, myself included, who hang on to our TiVo units and wish DTV would return to licensing the TiVo software.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Jeff D commented: "The problem is that TiVo carries baggage" -- true, but they carry something else: PATENTS.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Kevin H commented: Griz700 was dead on. I had two tivos on a DirecTV for years, then moved and starting using a Time Warner DVR. After 3-4 months of it, I was ready for any amount to get back to the Tivo. Using it is to understand the difference. Even my wife, a die-hard book vs. TV person, was willing to pay to buy to Tivo box. Once you've experienced Tivo's excellence in UI design, intuitiveness, and polish it equates to either having the Tivo or having no DVR. How's that for, as Tom Cooper posted above, "Tivo users become fanatics."
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 madgenius commented: For people that never had a Tivo it is hard to understand, if you only see Yugo's and thats all you drive then it is hard to see a better car to drive.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 HDTiVo commented: You are right to express concern over whether Comcast/Cox will push TiVoSoft downloads enough. DirecTV did a pretty good marketing job with their TiVo offerings. Cable often does not market such things well.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Yun commented: As devoted as Tivo fans are to Tivo, having a Tivo HD box basically locks in the user to cable, and for me, there is no where else to go but Comcast in my area. Such is the power of Tivo that I would be willing to get locked in with Comcast just to have Tivo.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Derek commented: Having had a Dish DVR, then a DirectTV Tivo, then a Comcast Motorola DVR and finally a Tivo series 3 I have to say that it really is true that until you've used a Tivo it's hard to know what you're missing.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Bill P commented: My in-laws put their one tuner Tivo on a rarely used TV to be replaced with a 2-tuner Comcast DVR. They are quite happy with it because it does what they want: record two shows at once. Not everyone becomes enamored with all the neat features of Tivo. Its good enough features at a good enough price.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Jeepman66 commented: Tivo....Why use a Tivo.. With the availability and EASE of use of things like Windows MCE, MythTv and others..combined with New TV's easily able to connect to your HOME PC, I think Tivo is a passing idea, that will become Home Theater PC's. I know I'll never use another cable provided box or Tivo box, when I can use my PC, and my cable inbound for ALL my content, which I can then save, offload to DVD, much more flexible
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Strider commented: Hmm. I can do all of those things w/ my Tivo. Tivo supports the hacking community (well, they don't actively try to thwart them) so my HD DirecTivo has 600GB of storage and runs a web server, FTP server, etc. From my PC desktop I can browse shows and pull them off the Tivo.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 carlivar commented: Seems to be that Amazon might be a potential buyer of Tivo. Tivo's boxes use Amazon's Unbox service for video-on-demand, right?
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 keith commented: I have to agree with most of the comments. You can't say the CC's DVR is fine until you've actually used a Tivo. And I can't imagine Comcast allowing me to download my videos to my notebook and watch them somewhere else, or do half the other great things I can do with my Tivo. At least not without nickel and dime-ing me to death.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Horatio commented: Re: Jeepman66
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 mike commented: I have a Directivo and have not stepped up to HD due to the upcoming switch from mpeg-2 to 4 and no HDTivo for directv that supports mpeg-4. I have tried to use my inlaws TW DVR it is pitiful UI and other coworkers have had major problems with their TW DVRs rebooting and loosing recordings. other than HD failures after 3 years my Directivo is here to stay. if only Directv will get back together with tivo under the new liberty media leadership.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Andrew C commented: As many others have said, TiVo is an experience good where sales really come only after using it. I owned a TiVo for 2 years and then switched to Comcast's DVR. Why? Well Comcast's DVR allowed me to record in HD and two channels at the same time without having to pay $600 up front. Now I do miss all the great things about my TiVo, but I can get by with Comcast's DVR. I can record seasons or single shows at a time. The interface is lacking, but I can do 90% of what I did with my TiVo and then some more (recording in HD and 2 shows at the same time). If Comcast rolled out its TiVo version, I'd happily pay a premium for it. But I suspect most people are like me and more people will be like me -- especially since HD is quickly becoming a must-have feature.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Jennifer commented: I just love how someone posts about how TiVos can only record one show at once. Guess the dual-tuner SD and HD models are just our imaginations, then, huh?
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Snake961 commented: As a owner of 3 Tivo boxes and 1 Comcast HD DVR, I speak from experience. Combine the Tivo interface with the Comcast service, and I will never leave Comcast again. The Comcast DVR menu and user interface is terrible at best. Tivo's interface is by far the most intuitive box I have used. The only drawback to my Tivo boxes is that they will only record on one channel at a time. That's the bane of early adopters, and I won't upgrade yet.
July 27, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 TiVo fan from Monrovia commented: How many TiVo fans out there have to suppress an urge to hit the "rewind 6 second" button when listening to the radio in the car?
July 28, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Google Guy commented: This is a really old idea, and contrary to the reporter's beliefs, TiVo isn't completely stupid.
July 28, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 ToddSpangler commented: Google Guy: The point is not whether TiVo is completely stupid, or partly stupid or not at all stupid. It's that TiVo's opportunities are narrower than they otherwise might be because of broad industry trends.
July 30, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Rob Usdin commented: One thing that people are completely missing about the TIVO experience is not just its ease of use in its functionality - but its ease of use in setting up. For those who would put forth the idea of a MythTV or a MCE box as an alternative - the setup on those kinds of devices is not even close to as simple as on a TIVO.
July 30, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Abandoned commented: Tivo abandoned me. I love Tivo and have 3 of them. Unfortunately, I live in an area where satellite is the only option (no cable). When I bought HDTVs, I discovered that there was no Tivo support for HD and satellite.
July 30, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Todd commented: I'm a long-time TiVo owner, but I'm actually thinking of switching. I love the UI, but I think that the devices no longer support what I want to do. So, I'm thinking of trying out SageTV + their media extenders. I want one interface for all of my media at each of my TVs. To do that with TiVo, I'd have to buy an expensive TiVo for each TV + pay for the service. I currently have a S1 w/ lifetime and a S2 that came with the first year of service included. When my S2 switches over to $6.95 / month if I prepay, I won't be too happy.
July 30, 2007
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 jrm01 commented: I love the comment about trying to hit the 6-second rewind button on the car radio. I thought I was the only one who did that!
February 13, 2008
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 lwm4p commented: Little late of a post here. But what is the point of paying monthly fees to anyone just to get the EPG? It is free. I bought sage tv, installed it..I can record HD and have a ton more space then TiVO will ever have and I don't have any monthly fees. The computer I run it on only cost me $350 at pcusa.com
April 10, 2008
In response to: TiVo's Catch-22 Tara_Reid commented: Hi mister! Cool website and nice content!!! Thanks!!!
Advertisement
|
Advertisements
|